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daily Analysis 15 May 2026

Globally, a 'perfect storm' of geopolitical tensions, includ...

Globally, a 'perfect storm' of geopolitical tensions, including those between the US and Iran, is driving a significant flight to safety among investors. This is evidenced by record-breaking global gold demand, which reached $193 billion in the first quarter. This macroeconomic backdrop provides a strong, fundamental tailwind for precious metals, as international investors seek to hedge against volatility and uncertainty in traditional equity and currency markets. Domestically, the Indonesian market is mirroring and amplifying these global trends. The Rupiah's sharp depreciation beyond Rp 17,500 to the US dollar, coupled with the JCI's decline following MSCI's removal of several Indonesian stocks from its index, has severely damaged investor confidence in local equities and the currency. Consequently, we are witnessing a record surge in domestic gold demand as a primary safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and further Rupiah weakness. On the policy front, the government's decision to delay a planned mining royalty hike provides temporary stability for production costs, while the new mandate for taxpayers to repatriate offshore assets could introduce complex capital flows in the near term. Our outlook remains strongly bullish for gold. The combination of persistent Rupiah weakness, draining foreign exchange reserves from Bank Indonesia's interventions, and sustained stock market volatility creates a compelling case for continued capital rotation into bullion. We anticipate demand to remain exceptionally high as both retail and institutional investors prioritize wealth preservation. While BI remains publicly confident in stabilizing the currency, the underlying domestic and global pressures suggest this will be a protracted challenge, reinforcing gold's strategic importance in any Indonesian investment portfolio.