Globally, the market remains dominated by a strong US dollar...

Globally, the market remains dominated by a strong US dollar, propelled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy outlook, now under new leadership. This has exerted significant pressure on emerging market currencies, with headlines repeatedly citing Fed jitters as the primary driver for capital outflows and currency weakness. While a temporary easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has provided brief periods of relief, the fundamental dynamic of a tightening Fed continues to anchor global investment strategy, favoring the dollar and creating headwinds for assets priced in other currencies. Domestically, the Indonesian Rupiah is experiencing extreme volatility and a clear depreciating trend, consistently testing and breaching the 17,800 level against the dollar. Bank Indonesia's active interventions, including rate hikes to 5.75% and FX purchase threshold adjustments, have struggled to durably stabilize the currency against overwhelming global pressures. This sustained currency erosion is a powerful catalyst for a flight to safety among Indonesian savers and investors, driving significant safe-haven demand for physical gold. On the supply side, state miner PT Antam is strategically pivoting from imports to secure domestic gold from Freeport, a move to reduce foreign currency exposure but one that also points to dwindling reserves and a tightening of easily accessible official supply. Our outlook for gold priced in Indonesian Rupiah is exceptionally bullish. The combination of persistent Rupiah weakness and a volatile macroeconomic environment solidifies gold's role as an essential tool for wealth preservation in Indonesia. While there are nascent signs of recovery in the equity market (JCI), the currency's fragility remains the paramount concern for the populace. We anticipate robust and sustained demand for physical bullion. Antam's strategic shift to domestic sourcing may introduce short-term friction in the supply chain, potentially leading to increased premiums and reinforcing a market defined by scarcity.