Globally, the environment remains exceptionally favorable fo...

Globally, the environment remains exceptionally favorable for gold. Persistent geopolitical tensions, evidenced by escalations in the Middle East, are driving significant safe-haven demand. This is compounded by a softening US economic outlook, with recent inflation data weighing on the US dollar. This dual dynamic of risk-off sentiment and currency effects provides a powerful tailwind for gold prices, attracting capital from investors seeking stability amid international uncertainty. Domestically, the case for holding physical gold is equally compelling, primarily as a hedge against severe institutional and currency risk. The Rupiah has stabilized around the Rp 18,000 level after a period of significant weakness, a direct consequence of long-term national debt and, more acutely, a high-profile corruption scandal within the Attorney General's Office. This legal turmoil has eroded public trust in state institutions, prompting a flight to tangible assets. While Bank Indonesia is actively supporting the currency, the underlying sentiment of political instability continues to fuel local demand for gold as the ultimate store of value. Our outlook is bullish for gold, particularly when priced in Indonesian Rupiah. The global and domestic drivers are aligned to push prices higher. We anticipate continued accumulation by Indonesian investors seeking to preserve wealth against both IDR depreciation and systemic political risk. On the supply side, disruptions in the informal sector, highlighted by recent illegal mining accidents and significant police seizures of illicit gold, may tighten the physical market. We advise clients to maintain or increase their allocation to physical bullion as a core holding in this volatile environment.