The global macroeconomic environment continues to exert sign...

The global macroeconomic environment continues to exert significant pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian Rupiah. Persistent US dollar strength, coupled with global volatility, is driving capital towards safe-haven assets. For Indonesian investors, this dynamic is twofold: not only is gold a globally recognized store of value, but its price in Rupiah terms is amplified by the currency's depreciation, offering a powerful hedge against imported inflation and the erosion of domestic purchasing power. The domestic landscape is dominated by the severe and ongoing depreciation of the Rupiah, which has breached the Rp 17,900 level against the US dollar. Despite interventions and policy signals from Bank Indonesia aimed at ensuring stability, the currency remains under pressure, fueling significant public and corporate anxiety. This has translated directly into a flight to safety, evidenced by Antam's reported 37% increase in sales volume. This surge in demand for physical bullion underscores a clear trend of wealth preservation as confidence in the local fiat currency wanes. The lingering effects of past policies, such as the tax amnesty, continue to add a layer of uncertainty to the nation's economic trajectory. Our outlook remains firmly bullish on physical gold demand within Indonesia. The primary catalyst is the unstable Rupiah, and we see no immediate reversal of this trend. While new domestic supply, such as Merdeka's upcoming Banyuwangi project, is anticipated, it is unlikely to satiate the current wave of investment and safe-haven demand. We expect sustained, strong retail interest in bullion as a core asset for wealth protection. Consequently, we are positioning for a prolonged period of elevated demand and potential supply chain tightness.